This is the first installment of All-32, a game-by-game preview of every matchup on the NFL slate each week. The goal is to provide a look at the most critical part of each game with a marriage of data and film study. As the season rolls along, the focus will narrow in on the specifics, but for this week, many of the featured players and units are big-picture projections for the teams in question.
If you're interested in our game picks, you can find them on this page.
Let's get to it. All times listed as Eastern.
Key Player/Unit: BUF RB James Cook
Stability is the next evolution of the Bills offense. They ranked second-to-last in offensive DVOA variance last year, and while the highs certainly carried them high enough, the floor was worringly low. Part of that evolution requires quarterback Josh Allen, an unholy creature of the deep, to not just continue generating explosive plays like he always has, but cut some of the negative plays out and replace them with safe, steady gains. The team made sure to give Allen the tools to do so by drafting Georgia's James Cook to provide a pass-catching spark out of the backfield.
Cook, a quick-twitched sub-200-pounder, is set to provide Allen with a backfield receiving option that he has yet to have since arriving in Buffalo. Of course, Allen's consistent bottom-five placement in targets to running backs is partly of his own volition as a reckless playmaker, but it's not like either Devin Singletary or Zach Moss gave him much reason to check the ball down over the past couple of years. Cook hopefully changes that.
Last year, the Rams defense mostly excelled against running backs in the passing game. They did allow a number of touchdowns and struggled more in the red zone, which hurt their DVOA figures against running back catches, but overall, the Rams weren't giving up easy yards. According to Sports Info Solutions, the Rams allowed the third-lowest completion percentage in the league as well as the second-lowest adjusted net yards per attempt when running backs were targeted, even with Troy Reeder earning the most snaps on the team at linebacker. Now with promising speedster Ernest Jones stepping into a bigger role and savvy vet Bobby Wagner by his side, the Rams should maintain their strength in defending passes out of the backfield.
There will not be many better chances for Cook to prove his worth to the offense than this one. Truthfully, that's probably asking for too much from a debut performance, but if nothing else, Cook's involvement underneath should be something to monitor this year as it pertains to the Bills offense changing their stripes.
Bonus: LAR offensive line vs. BUF defensive line
Getting pressure on Matthew Stafford is absolutely imperative. He is still a quality quarterback when pressured relative to the field, but he is prone to some mind-boggling errors, as last year's Titans and Vikings games made clear. Blitzing Stafford is not a means to do that, though. In 2021, Stafford generated 62.0 EPA when faced with five or more rushers, per Sports Info Solutions. No other quarterback earned more than 42.0 EPA on such plays. While that level of production won't hold, it's fair to say the Bills have to get home with four or else they are playing with fire.
The good news for Buffalo: they can get home with four. The Bills stole Von Miller from the Rams this offseason, giving them a real-deal No. 1 pass-rusher after having success with more a rotation last year. Second-year man Gregory Rousseau should be expected to take a step forward too. Even the interior is not safe for the Rams with defensive tackle Ed Oliver firing off the ball at 100 mph.
Los Angeles' offensive line is worse now than it was a year ago too. Andrew Whitworth, still a top-seven or so tackle last season, is now retired and replaced by Joe Noteboom—a fine successor, but still a couple of rungs down the ladder. The Rams also got worse at guard with Austin Corbett leaving for Carolina. His initial replacement, rookie Logan Bruss, was up and down in the preseason before suffering a season-ending ACL injury. Now Shelton Coleman is starting at right guard, which further hurts an interior offensive line that was, at best, fine last season.
Key Player/Unit: NO QB Jameis Winston
Jameis Winston probably won't ever shake his status as a meme. He eats Ws, he couldn't see straight for the first six years of his career, and he earned the only 30/30 TD-INT season in the modern era. He is an impossibly funny player, for better or worse.
There's a lot more of that "better" than he gets credit for, though. In seven starts last season, Winston earned a 13.6% DVOA as a passer before going down with an injury, a mark that would have ranked 10th in the league if he had earned enough passing attempts to qualify. Granted, that is buoyed a little bit by a clearly fluky Week 1 performance against the Green Bay Packers, but he still had to maintain that positive DVOA throughout the rest of his starts. Moreover, Winston put up those numbers with one of the weaker pass-catching groups in the NFL, one that had effectively zero speed to open up his best skill as a passer: aggressively pushing the ball into intermediate windows.
Against the Falcons, Winston is going to get all the time in the world to make the throws he wants. Atlanta's three "best" pass-rushers are likely Lorenzo Carter, Adetokunbo Ogundeji, and rookie second-round pick Arnold Ebiketie. The two veterans combined for just six sacks last year (five of which were earned by Carter with the New York Giants), while Ebiketie is a promising yet undersized option who shouldn't be expected to produce a ton in his debut. The Saints will be without rookie left tackle Trevor Penning, but James Hurst is a fine stand-in for now, and the rest of the New Orleans offensive line is a good pass pro unit overall. It would be a miracle for the Falcons if Winston is pressured consistently in this match.
The Falcons do have talent in the secondary, led by A.J. Terrell and supplemented by Casey Hayward, Isaiah Oliver, and Jaylinn Hawkins, but there are still players to be picked on and even the best defensive backs are going to struggle when there is virtually zero threat of a pass rush. If Winston remains as sharp and accurate as he was a season ago, he should be able to dice up this division rival in the opener.
Key Player/Unit: CAR CB Jaycee Horn
With Jacoby Brissett at the helm for the first 11 weeks of the season, the Browns passing game is going to be limited. On top of those limitations, freshly acquired Amari Cooper is far and away the team's best wideout. Donovan Peoples-Jones showed promising flashes as an X-type receiver with his ball skills and delicate body control near the sideline, but he isn't yet a consistent separator, nor does he offer much once the ball is in his hands. The passing game will revolve around Cooper all year, and that is especially true until the quarterback situation normalizes.
Moments like this are what the Panthers drafted Jaycee Horn for. He is a press man cornerback if there ever was one. Horn wants to start a fight at the line of scrimmage and carry it out until the whistle blows, and he has plenty of length and quickness to make that play style work at a high level. Unfortunately, his promising rookie campaign was cut exceptionally short due to a foot injury (which still left him on the PUP list early this offseason as a recovery precaution), but all the necessary talent is there.
Even without Horn in the lineup last year, the defense played the way it should with Horn playing. The Panthers used the ninth-highest rate of man coverage last year (33%). Moreover, they tended to let their cornerbacks travel a bit and flip sides as opposed to locking down a defined left and right cornerback. Assuming that continues, Horn could get plenty of opportunities to follow Cooper around, perhaps even into the slot, and do his best to take away Cleveland's clear No. 1 receiver.
It's a tall task, especially for such a young player coming off injury, but it's manageable. Cooper is a quality receiver but far from a titan at the position, and Horn's in-your-face style just might be the right approach to bother Cooper into submission. If Horn steps up right away and keeps Cooper to a modest day in the box score, he will give quarterback Baker Mayfield a good shot at getting revenge on his former team.
Key Player/Unit: CHI C Luke Getsy, OTs Riley Reiff, Braxton Jones
In a roundabout way, this is really about Justin Fields. Everything the Bears do this season revolves around keeping him upright and alive. To be clear, Fields himself surely carries some of the burden there. He loves to hold onto the ball in search of downfield throws, and that's probably not going to go away, for better or worse. Fields needs to be given a chance to prove he has taken strides in that area, though, and that cannot happen if he is relentlessly met with free rushers.
Unfortunately for Chicago, they could not have drawn a worse Week 1 matchup to try to sort out the kinks they will have up front. The 49ers have the most violent and arguably most talented front in the NFL, a unit led by Nick Bosa and littered with rotational players who could have starting jobs on other teams. Last year's 49ers finished 10th in pressure rate and fifth in adjusted sack rate, all while rushing with only four rushers just over 76% of the time (eighth-highest in the NFL). While the 49ers did lose edge defender Arden Key and defensive tackle D.J. Jones to free agency, they also added Drake Jackson in the second round of the draft and will get Javon Kinlaw back from injury. Arik Armstead is still going to be knocking people around too. It's going to be a fierce unit again.
The Bears are going to need to do a couple of things to give Fields a chance. First, the players simply have to be better. We don't know if they will be, but the Bears did try to get new faces at almost every spot. The right side of the line looks to be somewhat improved, even if marginally, with Teven Jenkins now at right guard and Riley Reiff at right tackle. Getting a competent center in Lucas Patrick, who already knows coordinator Luke Getsy's offense, should go a long way in making sure the offense is in the right call more consistently too. Left tackle Braxton Jones, a fifth-round rookie, is a massive question mark, but the next point of emphasis may be able to relieve pressure off of him.
Getsy needs to show better and more fitting protection schemes for Fields than Matt Nagy did. Nagy too often left Fields to fend for himself in five-man protections or poorly constructed six-man protections. Getsy, on the other hand, should help change some of that by bringing in more of the under-center approach we saw from his previous team, the Green Bay Packers. Putting Fields under center could help the Bears blend their run and pass looks, as well as get to more seven- and eight-man play-action protections. Both of those can be tools to help slow down the pass rush.
Of course, it will be a lot harder to do that if the Bears fall behind on the scoreboard and have to pass more. And that's probably what is going to happen. At the very least, though, it would be nice to see the Bears show the right ideas about how to structure their offense around their quarterback.
Key Player/Unit: PIT TE Pat Freiermuth
Pittsburgh's offense is one of the trickiest to get a feel for without seeing them play real games yet. Mitchell Trubisky isn't a good quarterback, but he is a hell of a lot different than Ben Roethlisberger and should be some degree better. The offensive line is still a mess, though, and it's hard to know which of Diontae Johnson or rookie George Pickens is going to become Trubisky's favorite target. All that being said, few players will have a clear opportunity to turn the tides of the Steelers offense like Pat Freiermuth, especially this week. He needs to make an impact in both the running and passing game.
As a pass-catcher, there aren't many questions. Freiermuth is comfortably the Steelers' best option over the short-to-intermediate middle of the field as well as an absolute terror in the red zone. Freiermuth finished last year 12th in catch rate and 16th in DYAR (among 55 qualifying tight ends) as a rookie last year, showcasing both reliability and production beyond cheap checkdowns. In this matchup, Freiermuth should have the advantage over the Bengals' linebackers, who played a part in the Bengals ranking 24th in DVOA against tight ends last season.
On the ground, Freiermuth absolutely must take a step forward. For all his size and strength that he shows at the catch point, Freiermuth was a mediocre blocker last year. A step forward in that regard would not only help a poor Steelers offensive line overall, but would be a huge boon in this matchup, where both Trey Hendrickson and, more critically, Sam Hubbard are tough run defenders on the edge.
If Freiermuth blossoms into that kind of two-facet player, it would become a little easier to feel good about the floor of the Steelers offense in this game and moving forward.
Key Player/Unit: DET defensive line
Philly's receivers are going to run amok against Detroit's secondary. There is zero doubt about it. A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are a given, and role players such as Quez Watkins and Zach Pascal are enough to make noise in this kind of matchup as well. That doesn't even get to Dallas Goedert, who continues to level up and crack into the league's top tier of pass-catching tight ends. Someone will get open every single play.
The problem is, Detroit's pass rush still isn't good enough to take over the game and pressure Jalen Hurts relentlessly, not against these offensive tackles anyway. Aidan Hutchinson should have a nice rookie campaign and Charles Harris has become an oddly effective player of late, but that won't cut it here. Instead, the Lions front has to win by stopping the run, forcing Philadelphia into unfavorable passing situations, and pinching their opportunities to run play-action for Hurts. The Eagles were a dead-average passing offense without play-action last season, as opposed to fifth in DVOA on play-action passes while running them at the fifth-highest rate.
That is a lot to ask of such a young front seven, but they showed promise last year. Both Levi Onwuzurike and Alim McNeill looked like starting-quality players by the end of the season. Some degree of progress should be expected from two players who already look like they belong in this league. Linebacker Derrick Barnes is stepping into the full-time Mike role too. He's not there yet as a coverage piece, but against the run, he is a hammer and can move well enough to keep himself around the ball. Add Hutchinson—who was a tough, smart run defender in college with enough length to make good on it—on the edge, and it's possible that the Lions front has a fighting chance to surprise on the ground.
That said, this pick is a shot in the dark. I am all about Restoring the Roar, but Philly has a top-three roster in the conference and the Lions still probably aren't a wild-card team. The Lions need a miracle; this is just the unit where that miracle may manifest.
Key Player/Unit: HOU HC Lovie Smith, CB Derek Stingley.
There is a time and place for Cover-2. It's great at handling 2x2 formations, especially on clear passing downs, and can provide insurance against deep passing. Cover-2 is also a benefit to cornerbacks who can't run or cover all that well, but can hit and tackle. To the surprise of nobody, Lovie Smith's Texans ran Cover-2 at the highest rate in the league last season according to Sports Info Solutions, though that did slow down a smidgen down the stretch of the year.
That cannot be the primary coverage with a field-tilter like Derek Stingley. In 2019, Stingley was a freshman star almost right away at LSU, going toe-to-toe with many of the conference's best all over the field. The movement skills, the ball skills, the patience—Stingley had it all and looked like an obvious top-five pick. LSU's post-2019 collapse and some health issues put Stingley's top-five status in jeopardy come 2022 draft season, but in the end, his profile as one of the best man-coverage cornerback prospects in the modern era earned him his rightful selection at the top of the draft.
Even in his debut, Stingley will be the only Texans defensive back capable of covering Michael Pittman down to down. Pittman is the Colts' only major wide receiver threat until proven otherwise too. Alec Pierce is a promising prospect and Parris Campbell can be useful as a YAC threat underneath, but until we see more from them, they aren't who the game plan should revolve around.
Smith needs to fight his inclination to play Cover-2 and let his uber-talented man-coverage corner go iso ball against one of the league's brightest young receivers. Otherwise, the exceptionally savvy Matt Ryan is going to carve this defense up without much trouble.
Key Player/Unit: MIA QB Tua Tagovailoa
There is no better matchup to prove if Tua Tagovailoa will sink or swim in the new offense than a face-off against Bill Belichick and the Patriots. The reason it's perfect is not because it is a Herculean task, but because it's a favorable matchup personnel-wise that will stress Tagovailoa mentally. The Patriots secondary is fine, but Jonathan Jones is their clear best man-to-man talent and the Dolphins have two No. 1-attention worthy receivers in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
Likewise, as bad as the Dolphins offensive line is still going to be, the Patriots front isn't unstoppable by any means. Matthew Judon is a mess-maker off the edge and Christian Barmore can be a car bomb from time to time, but collectively the unit is closer to solid or good than great. Tagovailoa will have a fighting chance, at least.
So it's on him to take the next step and look like a pro quarterback. We know Tagovailoa can throw a nice slant and a pretty deep ball (on the rare occasion he pushes the ball down the field), but his pre-snap management, post-snap processing, and pocket command have all been subpar to this point in his career. If any defensive coordinator is going to stress those pre- and post-snap processing issues, it will be Belichick, and a successful day from the Patriots in that regard will surely bleed into antsy pocket movement from Tagovailoa.
Key Player/Unit: BAL offensive line
Injuries whittled down the Ravens offensive line last year until they were one of the worst units in the league. Oddly, the Ravens' pressure rate allowed did get a little better in 2021 compared to 2020, but their blown block rate got worse and their adjusted sack rate was one of the worst in the league, which suggests the Ravens were real, real bad when it mattered most on clear passing downs.
That cannot happen again, and the Ravens did their part this offseason to ensure it won't. Free agent right tackle Morgan Moses should be a clear upgrade over the carousel of players at that spot last season, while rookie center Tyler Linderbaum should also be an immediate upgrade who can offer some new flavors to Baltimore's run game. Left tackle Ronnie Stanley is set to return this year as well. He may miss this game as he eases his way back into playing shape, but Ja'Wuan James is an acceptable stand-in for the time being and should at least be better than the deteriorated Alejandro Villanueva was in 2021.
Still, you want to see proof of concept with this new unit. The Jets should provide a nice baseline test for that. New York's front is nothing spectacular, but they are getting a surplus of edge talent this season. Not only does Carl Lawson return from injury after missing all of last year, but the team drafted Jermaine Johnson in the second round and added Jacob Martin as an effective off-the-bench type via free agency. All of those moves also push Bryce Huff into a rotational role, which should increase his value compared to when he was forced to start last season when he was healthy.
Key Player/Unit: JAX WR Christian Kirk
Few teams had nickelback issues like the Commanders last year. They had countless coverage issues in general, but not being able to field a proper nickelback was a main feature of their demise.
In short, Kendall Fuller needed to be an outside-only zone corner, William Jackson is an outside-only cornerback who struggled to live up to his free-agent contract, and neither rookie Benjamin St. Juste nor anyone else on the roster could fill in at nickel comfortably. Washington tried playing more three-safety looks at times, as well as moving Fuller to the slot and putting St. Juste on the sideline. The former had success in some spots, while the latter looked visibly uncomfortable for Fuller.
Now reader, you might think Washington did something about that this offseason, but no. That is not the case. All three of Fuller, Jackson, and St. Juste are starting again, this time with the lanky, heavy-footed St. Juste taking over full-time in the slot. Perhaps a full offseason of work at that spot has turned St. Juste into a decent nickel, but there's no reason to believe that is true until we see it play out (or give Jack Del Rio the benefit of doubt in coaching a player up).
That should leave Christian Kirk to feast. Kirk can and will get some snaps outside, but he is best from the slot as someone who can stretch the field vertically and horizontally. If the taller, slower St. Juste has to consistently match up with the lighter, speedier Kirk, there's a good chance Trevor Lawrence is going to look for his new teammate over and over and over again.
Key Player/Unit: NYG ER Azeez Ojulari
Thinking about the Titans pass-catchers versus the Giants secondary pains me to the core. The Giants' safeties are a fun unit led by Xavier McKinney, but the cornerback room has disaster potential, especially if you do not believe Adoree' Jackson's 65% coverage success rate in 2021 to be legitimate or sustainable. (I, personally, do not believe it to be legitimate or sustainable.) As for the Titans, it's difficult to imagine Robert Woods coming off an injury is a convincing WR1, and nobody else besides him on the depth chart has proven worthy of being a starting NFL receiver yet. This matchup is a slopfest that could go either way.
New York can instead look to gain the edge with their pass rush. We all know new defensive coordinator Don Martindale is as rabid a blitzer as the league has ever seen, but the Giants still need to prove they have the talent to get home. Second-year edge Azeez Ojulari is their best bet at doing that consistently.
Ojulari was about as good as you can expect from a rookie last season. He earned a solid 21 pressures and finished the year with eight sacks while playing 67% of the team's snaps. The former Georgia pass-rusher's explosiveness, balance, and devilish inside-counter moves allowed him to produce right away, and it's only fair to expect him to kick things up a notch with some more experience.
This is a good matchup to prove it too. Taylor Lewan has not been himself the past two seasons, falling to 21st in snaps per blown block among left tackles in 2021. Most of those blown blocks were in pass pro. The other side isn't any better for Tennessee. Rookie Nicholas Petit-Frere is going to start despite a shaky preseason showing. Combine that with quarterback Ryan Tannehill's propensity to be, shall we say, numb in the pocket, and it's not hard to see how a good performance off the edge from Ojulari could change the game almost by itself.
Key Player/Unit: KC RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Let's start with the Chiefs angle. Between all the moves the team made this offseason, as well as what they have shown in preseason, Andy Reid is hopping back in the time machine a bit. This version of the offense, no longer capable of relying on Tyreek Hill to force explosive plays, is going to become more methodical. For Reid, that means getting more under center, tightening up formations a bit, and aiming to pick up more efficient gains via the ground attack and short-to-intermediate passing game.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire should be a beneficiary of that not only in terms of volume, but offensive play style. Edwards-Helaire is a short, stout runner who does his best when running concepts are direct and he can rely on his balance and lateral quickness to work downhill. Duo, counter, and power are all plays that hit better from under center and fit Edwards-Helaire's strengths better than zone running, especially outside zone runs, which he doesn't always have the speed and flexibility to pull off.
The Cardinals front is also, flatly, ungood. Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph blitzed every which way on early downs last season, but that generated as many explosives for opponents as it did for them. Additionally, there is a strong case the front got worse given Chandler Jones is being replaced by Dennis Gardeck and there is still uncertainty at the second level. Maybe the chaos works out for them again, but with the absolute tanks the Chiefs are rolling out on the offensive line, there's no reason to bet on the Cardinals front coming out on top in this one.
Key Player/Unit: LAC S Derwin James
A healthy Derwin James is, at worst, the second-best safety in the league alongside Minkah Fitzpatrick. Still, he is just one man, and the Raiders have a multitude of threats he absolutely needs to cover, namely Davante Adams and Darren Waller. Under favorable circumstances, the Chargers would have their new highly paid shutdown cornerback J.C. Jackson to help keep Adams down, but Jackson will miss the early part of the season with an ankle issue.
One of Adams or Waller is going to get theirs; it's just a matter of which option Brandon Staley believes is more important to shut down. In turn, the Chargers have two options: use James as a robber or bracket on Adams to slow down the best receiver in the NFL, or try to match James up on Waller as much as possible and push the rest of the coverage to Adams.
Given James' expected role as a box/slot coverage type safety, it's more likely we will see the latter option. Keeping him near the box or in the apex area allows James to be used as a blitzer and run defense weapon, whereas prioritizing him as more of a second- and third-level coverage defender could compromise some of L.A.'s flexibility with the scheme as a whole. Expect Staley to try some of both and see where it takes him over the course of the game, but the Chargers' best bet is to keep James near Waller and let him be a two-way weapon, and pray that pushing the rest of the coverage towards Adams is enough.
Key Player/Unit: Whoever is playing tackle for the Packers
Seriously, who knows? Left tackle David Bakhtiari is maybe, sort of, kind of on track to start Week 1? But we have been led astray before about his return. And even Bakhtiari himself quote-tweeted a column suggesting to still take this all day-by-day. He very well could start, and it does seem things are trending that way, but until we see him on the field and playing like himself again, it's hard to have any faith in what is going on with him.
Elgton Jenkins isn't much of a certainty to start on the other side in Week 1 either. Jenkins' knee injury has kept him in and out of practice throughout the offseason and it's not clear whether or not he's going to go. Jenkins probably won't be at his best in the event he does start.
Right now, the most likely fill-ins at left and right tackle respectively would be Yosh Nijman and Royce Newman. Nijman is quietly a great backup tackle, but he is still just a backup-to-baseline-level starter at the end of the day. Newman potentially filling in at right tackle makes things trickier because he would need to abandon his starting spot at right guard, most likely giving way to Jake Hanson as the temporary starter there. Maybe Zach Tom could play right tackle as well, but for all his great preseason play, the Packers do not seem ready to make that move.
To give some benefit of doubt, the Packers weathered offensive line injuries exceptionally well last season. Having Aaron Rodgers does that. However, Rodgers no longer has the always-open Davante Adams to bail him out in these spots. We can still expect Rodgers to find some workaround, but that probably means more quick passing and instant checkdowns to the backs, namely Aaron Jones. That can be fine—Jones is an awesome pass-catcher out of the backfield, and the other Packers receivers are best in the short-to-intermediate range anyway—it just may necessitate a slower, more methodical approach than the Packers want to play.
Key Player/Unit: DAL RB Tony Pollard
Any number of Cowboys offensive players could have applied here. Offensive linemen Jason Peters and rookie Tyler Smith will have microscopes on them, leading receiver CeeDee Lamb needs to take the final step into true stardom, and Dak Prescott needs to show high-end decision-making and accuracy to overcome a secondary that outclasses his receiving corps. None of them are the pick here, though. Running back Tony Pollard, even as the team's No. 2 option at the position, has the best chance to hit Tampa Bay where they are weak.
In 2021, the Bucs were one of the worst defenses at defending running backs in the passing game. Not only did they finish 22nd in DVOA in defending those passes, but they allowed the fourth-most targets to running backs in the league despite having a secondary that was highly exploitable thanks to a ravenous run of injuries. Devin White is nothing close to the coverage piece he was billed to be after the team's Super Bowl win two seasons ago and Lavonte David, while sharp as ever, isn't quite as rangy as he was at his peak. Losing safety Jordan Whitehead, who regularly flew down to make tackles near the line of scrimmage, could hurt the Bucs even further in this area.
Pollard, by contrast, was fairly explosive when catching passes out of the backfield last season. He finished 17th in receiving DYAR while taking on an average volume of passes, and his volume should only increase with how depleted the receiver group is right now. If Pollard gets a handful of chances to make plays in space or out on the perimeter, one has to imagine he can break one or two of them off for a play that single-handedly turns a drive into points.
Key Player/Unit: DEN QB Russell Wilson
As excited as we all may be about this iteration of The Russell Wilson Offense™, this matchup should be a chance to test whether it's Wilson that needs to unlock the offense, or the offense that needs to unlock him.
Long gone are the days where the Seahawks spam Cover-3 Buzz over and over. In fact, according to Sports Info Solutions, the Seahawks defense faced a league-leading 228 pass attempts while in either Cover-2, Cover 4, or Cover-6 last season, edging out zone-heavy teams such as the Eagles, Colts, and Texans. They were much more of a two-high defense than people expect out of Pete Carroll's teams last season, particularly down the stretch.
Few quarterbacks struggled against two-high coverages last season more than Russ. Per SIS, Wilson had the lowest completion percentage (56.8%) against those three coverages among the 36 quarterbacks with at least 50 such attempts. There could be a few reasons for that, but one is that Wilson also led the league in average depth of target on those throws at a stunning 11.7 yards. On some level, you want your quarterback to be aggressive, but anecdotally, it was clear on film that Wilson was not comfortable taking the short to intermediate options, especially those between the numbers. He wanted to force the ball down the field despite the odds, and the juice wasn't worth the squeeze. Of the 36 qualifying quarterbacks, only Tyler Huntley (a backup) and Zach Wilson (a bad) generated a smaller percentage of positive EPA plays over that sample.
Perhaps it's all an aberration. Wilson fared much better in 2020, after all. These coverages are likely going to be the premier coverages around the league this year, however, and Wilson's 2021 film is littered with examples of him trying to push the ball downfield against defenses explicitly set out to not let him do that. Either Wilson re-learns to take what's given to him versus these coverages, the same way we saw Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen adapt over the course of last season, or the Broncos absolutely have to run defenses out of those coverages, which is certainly possible with a backfield led by Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams and an offensive line with a solid young core.
Or neither of those things happen early on and it takes The Russell Wilson Offense™ time to find its groove, not unlike the early days of the Matt Ryan/Kyle Shanahan and Aaron Rodgers/Matt LaFleur marriages.
This article first appeared on Football Outsiders and was syndicated with permission.
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